United Leases 500k Preview: The Desert Jewel

Since we’re making our first cease of the season within the Arizona desert this week, we are able to solely actually look again on previous statistics for Phoenix Raceway. This fashion of racing is an enormous departure from the usual ovals that we have spent the primary three weeks of the season competing on. At this level we’re monitoring traits, however the

We keep out west this weekend and head from Nevada to Arizona to finish the West Coast swing. This week NASCAR’s prime racing sequence stops at one of many extra distinctive tracks on the circuit, Phoenix Raceway. The observe at Avondale, Arizona is an irregular “D” formed oval with very low, progressive banking within the corners of 8-to-11 levels. The straights are almost flat at a lowly three levels, and really quick as they carry off into the sweeping corners. This oval is vastly totally different than Daytona, Fontana and Las Vegas. Phoenix boasts the excessive speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the shut confines of brief observe racing as properly. As we’ve got witnessed within the final a number of years, it is typically the motive force who brings the quickest automobile to the Arizona desert that walks away with the trophy. This race is often marked by dominant performances, and really hardly ever by late momentum swings that catapult drivers into victory lane. The motive force who has led probably the most laps at this oval has received six of the final 9 Phoenix races. It is a development that may doubtless proceed this Sunday.

Since we’re making our first cease of the season within the Arizona desert this week, we are able to solely actually look again on previous statistics for Phoenix Raceway. This fashion of racing is an enormous departure from the usual ovals that we have spent the primary three weeks of the season competing on. At this level we’re monitoring traits, however the change of racing fashion this week calls for that we go to the historic numbers with some emphasis. The latest loop statistics at Phoenix Raceway will likely be a very powerful information we are going to study this week. The historic traits on the Phoenix oval are as necessary as anyplace within the NASCAR Cup Collection schedule. The loop stats within the desk under cowl the final 18 years or 36 races at Phoenix Raceway.

That is the primary race on the Phoenix oval since final November when NASCAR’s prime division rolled into the Arizona desert to crown final season’s champion. Joey Logano would placed on a dominant efficiency and lead 187 of the 312 laps that November afternoon. The motive force of the No. 22 Ford would maintain the opposite three championship contenders at bay, most particularly Ross Chastain, and Logano would hoist his second Cup Collection championship trophy over his head. Contemplating that we’re simply 4, brief months faraway from that race, we’ve got to look very intently at what occurred within the Season Finale 500. That race and its information will likely be very recent and related to this week’s United Leases 500k. Logano’s win gave Ford the season-sweep at Phoenix and third victory for that producer within the final six occasions on the Arizona oval.

If Toyota hopes to climb again into prime standing at Phoenix Raceway, their hopes will primarily experience with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin. The duo had been the best ending drivers for the Toyota camp (sans Kyle Busch) on the Desert Jewel final November. If Chevrolet hopes to retake the reins of Phoenix, their large hitters will likely be Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain. Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix Raceway, and as not too long ago as 2019. Whereas he is new to Chevy this season, he is definitely not new to successful at Phoenix. Chastain has by no means received on the Arizona brief observe, however he did acquire eye-popping second- and third-place finishes on the oval final season. We’ll need to preserve an in depth eye on Chase Briscoe as properly, as he too might fire up some bother for the opposite producers. He received this occasion one 12 months in the past and returned in November to gather a formidable Prime 5. We’ll spotlight the groups talked about above, and a few others who will likely be vying for the win at Phoenix Raceway.

The Contenders – These within the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Coming off the runner-up Las Vegas end, Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet group have a variety of momentum rolling into the Arizona desert this week. The veteran driver has seven Prime 10’s in his final eight begins at this oval, together with a victory in 2021 coming into this weekend’s United Leases 500k. Larson’s final efficiency at this observe netted a gradual ninth-place end within the Championship Finale 500 final November. That effort has lifted Larson’s profession Prime-10 fee at Phoenix to a powerful 59-percent.  He additionally cracks the Prime 5 at this oval at a formidable 35-percent fee. It is actually stunning that he is solely grabbed one-career victory at this race observe. Nonetheless, that might simply change by Sunday night. Larson and his race group are heating up proper now.

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is trying to rebound from his subpar 14th-place end at Las Vegas final Sunday. The No. 8 Chevrolet group is not fully centered but, however they’re shortly transferring in that course. Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix, and two of these victories have come since 2018 on the Phoenix oval. The truth is, he is been zeroed-in at this observe for fairly a while. Busch rides a three-race Prime-10 streak into this weekend’s motion on the Desert Jewel. Latest efforts have boosted his Prime-10 fee on the Arizona brief observe to a lofty 71-percent. Busch has led near 1,200 laps for his profession at Phoenix Raceway, so he is aware of what it takes to run up entrance right here and safe wins.

Joey Logano – The motive force of the No. 22 Ford is a three-time Phoenix winner, together with NASCAR’s final cease on the observe final November. It marks a surge in efficiency for Logano at this facility in latest visits. The Penske Racing star has led a mixed 612 laps in his final seven begins at Phoenix Raceway. He is additionally cracked the Prime 10 in seven of his final eight begins on the Arizona brief observe heading into Sunday’s motion. For the reason that 2020 season alone he is compiled two wins and one runner-up end on the Desert Jewel. That has boosted his profession Prime-5 fee at this observe to a powerful 29-percent. Logano is a good candidate to problem for the win within the United Leases 500k.

Ross Chastain – In case you’re taking a look at career-long stats at Phoenix for Chastain, simply cease. All it’s essential to deal with is his efficiency final season on the observe within the Subsequent-Gen automobile with Trackhouse Racing. Chastain nabbed spectacular second- and third-place finishes at Phoenix Raceway in 2022. He’ll look to interrupt via for profession win primary on the facility this Sunday. Chastain has began the season properly. The motive force of the No. 1 Chevrolet has one Prime-5 and two Prime-10 finishes to associate with a wholesome 97 laps led thus far. He is among the many leaders within the championship factors and proving once more in 2023 he is an A-tier driver within the Cup Collection. Based mostly on Chastain’s efficiency at Phoenix final season, we consider he’ll be a powerful contender to win Sunday within the Arizona desert.

Stable Performs – Close to locks for a Prime 10 with an out of doors shot to win

William Byron – Coming off the large win at Las Vegas final week, Byron will get a fantasy improve this week for Phoenix. The Hendrick Motorsports teenager overcame two powerful races to kick off the season with an excellent victory at Las Vegas final Sunday. That ought to have him centered like a laser coming to Arizona this week. Phoenix Raceway provides Byron one other alternative to shine. The Arizona oval has yielded Prime-10 finishes to the No. 24 Chevrolet group in 5 of 10 begins and that has boosted Byron’s Prime-10 fee at this facility to a powerful 50-percent. The 13.0 common end throughout 10-career begins can also be at an excellent stage. Byron’s final begin at Phoenix netted a powerful sixth-place end final November.

Kevin Harvick – Phoenix Raceway is certainly one of Harvick’s prime statistical ovals. He is a nine-time winner on the facility, together with this occasion in 2018. He leads all drivers within the sequence in laps led at this oval over the past 18 seasons, so clearly Harvick possesses a present at this one-mile brief observe. The veteran driver’s No. 4 group at Stewart Haas Racing has gotten off to an inexpensive begin this season and with finishes of Twelfth-, fifth- and ninth-place the final three weeks. We’ll see if Harvick can flip it up a notch this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. The Stewart Haas Racing star carries a staggering 19-race Phoenix Prime-10 streak into this weekend’s motion. If there may be any observe within the schedule to leap begin Harvick’s historic success, it is Phoenix.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney completed simply exterior the Prime 10 final Sunday in Las Vegas with an inexpensive Thirteenth-place effort within the Pennzoil 400. He’ll look to hit the reset button within the Arizona desert this week. Phoenix Raceway has been a little bit of a combined bag for the motive force of the No. 12 Ford up to now in his profession. Blaney has 5 Prime 5’s and 9 Prime 10’s in 14 begins at this facility. That works out to a powerful 12.3 common end. Nonetheless, if we actually deal with what he has completed not too long ago at Phoenix Raceway, we see that Blaney is frequently bettering right here. The younger driver rides a three-race Phoenix Prime-5 streak into this weekend’s motion, and within the Subsequent-Gen automobile he led a mixed 252 laps right here final season and nabbed fourth- and second-place finishes.

Alex Bowman – Bowman is just not a traditionally robust performer at Phoenix Raceway, however we have determined to listing him within the strong performs this week as a result of he is opened the 2023 season on an actual heater. With fifth-, eighth- and third-place finishes to associate with 31 laps led thus far, the motive force of the No. 48 Chevrolet is difficult for the early-season factors lead and setting the tempo early on for the championship. Bowman has only one Prime-10 end in 15 begins at Phoenix Raceway, nevertheless it was a spectacular and unforgettable efficiency. The veteran driver received the pole and led a stunning 194 laps right here in 2016 earlier than lastly ending sixth that day. We consider it is illustrative of how Bowman can carry out at Phoenix when given a powerful race automobile.

Sleepers – Drivers with good historical past at Phoenix & strong upside

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been among the best brief observe drivers within the sequence the final a number of seasons. The motive force of the No. 11 Toyota has two-career Phoenix victories to his credit score. The final got here in his begin right here within the Fall of 2019. Hamlin cracks the Prime 5 in 46-percent of his begins at Phoenix Raceway. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 850 laps for his profession at Phoenix, and he is normally no worse than a Prime-10 finisher. 4 of Hamlin’s final 5 efforts at this Arizona oval have all netted Prime-10 finishes, together with a gradual eighth-place final November. It is fairly clear that he merely loves racing at this brief observe. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had a little bit of a sluggish begin to the 2023 season, however this can be a race and an oval that may get him again within the Prime-10 column this Sunday afternoon.

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe’s sluggish begin to the season might deter some from utilizing him in fantasy video games this weekend, however do not make that mistake. If there’s one observe to get Briscoe rolling its definitely Phoenix Raceway. The Stewart Haas Racing teenager was good at this desert oval final season. Briscoe led 101 laps and claimed a victory on this occasion one 12 months in the past. He then returned final November and piloted the No. 14 Ford to an equally spectacular fourth-place end within the Season Finale 500. Briscoe likes this observe and he with crew chief John Klausmeier have figured this place out. The racing at this oval is extra consultant of brief observe racing, in comparison with the opposite three occasions of this season. We count on Briscoe to flourish with the change of tempo.

Christopher Bell – Regardless of Bell’s disappointing crash at Fontana two weeks in the past, he nonetheless has a pair of Prime-5 finishes within the first three occasions of the season. The Joe Gibbs Racing teenager is flexing some early-season muscle and will carry that momentum into Phoenix Raceway this Sunday. Bell has not been spectacular on the Arizona brief observe, however he is been bettering. Three of his final 4 begins on the Desert Jewel have netted Prime-10 finishes. That has boosted his profession Prime-10 fee right here to a suitable 50-percent fee. In Bell’s final begin at Phoenix, he began seventeenth on the grid and drove to a formidable Tenth-place end in final November’s Season Finale 500. We count on he’ll be even higher than this time round.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex hasn’t precisely began the season in race-winning type. Nonetheless, he slugged it out to a formidable seventh-place end at Las Vegas this previous week. Phoenix Raceway hasn’t been an oval of dominance for Truex, thus the sleeper performs tag this week. He received this occasion two years in the past, and he completed runner-up at Phoenix Raceway that very same Fall. These performances constructed on some latest success for the motive force of the No. 19 Toyota at this observe. Nonetheless, these efforts got here within the prior era race automobile, so it is a bit of a reset this weekend. With a profession Prime-10 fee hovering round 41-percent and common end of 15.6, Phoenix has not been a foul facility for Truex. We must always see some enchancment by this driver and group this weekend.

Daniel Suarez – With seventh-, fourth- and Tenth-place finishes within the first three occasions, the season could not have began any higher for Suarez. The motive force of the No. 99 Chevrolet is a mid-level performer at Phoenix Raceway. Nonetheless, we’ve got good cause to consider this time round will likely be totally different for the veteran driver. Suarez begin on this occasion one 12 months in the past netted a gradual ninth-place end for the Trackhouse Racing driver. It was simply his third-career Prime 10 at Phoenix, however left a very good impression going ahead. Suarez can have good notes from that outing and will use them to good impact in Sunday’s United Leases 500k.

Brad Keselowski – This season has began fairly properly for Keselowski in comparison with final season. He has only one Prime 10 via three occasions, however he is been aggressive and led laps proper out of the gate in 2023. Phoenix Raceway presents a possibility to the motive force of the No. 6 Ford to nab his second Prime 10 of the season. Keselowski has 27-career begins on the Desert Jewel and his 13 Prime-10 finishes works out to a good 48-percent fee. He is by no means been a winner nor large lap chief at this facility, however he has grabbed eight-career Prime-5 finishes as properly. The 13.7 common end at Phoenix Raceway represents regular worth. Keselowski is an effective driver to invest on this weekend in weekly lineup leagues.

Gradual Down – Drivers to keep away from this week

Chase Elliott – After the snowboarding accident of final Friday and subsequent surgical procedure to restore his damaged left tibia, Elliott missed final Sunday’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports officers have not too long ago introduced that his timeframe for returning is about six weeks, and we consider that will even be a bit optimistic. The textbook restoration time for a compound fracture of the tibia is 12 weeks, so if Elliott can weight bear earlier than this he might return sooner. Nonetheless, fantasy racing gamers ought to plan on the motive force of the No. 9 Chevrolet being sidelined for the rapid future. Josh Berry changed him within the group’s Chevy at Las Vegas and struggled mightily, so that does not appear to be an possibility for fantasy stats in the intervening time.

Tyler Reddick – It has been a sluggish begin to the 2023 marketing campaign. Reddick has finishes of Thirty ninth-, Thirty fourth- and Fifteenth-place via the primary three occasions together with his new 23XI Racing group. The younger driver settled down together with his Prime 15 at Las Vegas this previous Sunday, nevertheless it’s clear this driver and group nonetheless have a protracted approach to go earlier than they’ll supply reliable returns in fantasy leagues. Phoenix Raceway does not maintain a lot promise for Reddick to proceed on the comeback path both. The motive force of the No. 45 Toyota has only one Prime 10 in six begins on the Arizona oval. Reddick’s common end right here is only a mere 21.0. Whereas all these stats had been compiled together with his outdated No. 8 Chevrolet group, they’re nonetheless leaving a very good little bit of doubt about his potential within the United Leases 500k.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The veteran driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet got here again to Earth together with his Twenty fourth-place end at Las Vegas this previous Sunday. Stenhouse will now look to rebound on a harder oval this Sunday in Phoenix. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has struggled at Phoenix Raceway through the years. In 20-career begins he has simply two Prime-10 finishes (10-percent) and a mean end of 21.7. Final season Stenhouse struggled to Twenty eighth- and Thirty second-place finishes on the Desert Jewel. That is one brief observe that he is by no means been capable of clear up. The Subsequent-Gen automobile even appeared to complicate issues final 12 months. We do not have a really optimistic outlook for Stenhouse this weekend.

Bubba Wallace – Regardless of the Prime-5 end at Las Vegas this previous week, we’re calling to fade the No. 23 Toyota group this week at Phoenix Raceway. Wallace claimed a pair of subpar Twenty second-place finishes at Phoenix final season within the Subsequent-Gen automobile. He wasn’t capable of preserve the lead lap in both occasion. That simply constructed on a career-long set of troubles at this observe for Wallace. He has only one Prime 10 in 10-career begins on the Arizona brief observe (10-percent) and a 21.8 common end for the 23XI Racing veteran. The profession struggles and lack of success at Phoenix Raceway final season lead us to suggest retaining Wallace on the bench and holding him again for deployment on bigger ovals.